Thursday, May 29, 2008

How to Avoid Blaming the Market for Your Losses

Invest smarter. There are at least two ways to achieve better results with your investments.

The first is to resist the mindset that makes you think your financial future is at the mercy of the stock market.

The second is to never EVER assume an investment will go back up because it is down 20-50% or because someone told you it will go up.

Try to understand that the phrase “long term” has a different meaning today than ever before. Hoping that the stock market will bail you out from your losses is a lot like sitting at a train station, waiting for a train that has been rescheduled for another time, only you never picked up an updated train schedule.

I was sitting in a health care provider’s office this week and could not help overhearing a patient’s conversation on her cell phone with her broker. My antenna always responds to words like, “how much did I lose?” or “I’m not worried, this is for the long term”. So, in other words, she’s in her car traveling west from New York on Rte. 80 in reverse gear; and it’s not a problem because she doesn’t need to be in Chicago until next month!

I have said it 100 times or more that an inordinate number of investors, quite like consumers, are brainwashed. College funds and retirement funds are objectives for the future, and for several unfortunate reasons, there is no real urgency about the present values of these accounts. This is a horrible shame.

Only a minority of investors are award that the Standard and Poors 500 index, which tracks the market value of 500 mid-to-large size companies, is down 9.5% for the past twelve months. A large number of mutual funds have a similar track record, regardless of their popularity. This is to say you would probably have more capital if you had parked your money in a money market account, instead of an index fund or a growth fund, for the past year.

A cheerful side to this report is that you can find growth and fixed income investments that outperform the market indices by a mile. Here are just a handful of stocks and closed-end funds that can get your portfolio headed in the right direction for your so-called long term investment plan.

McDonalds (NYSE - MCD) - up 15% since June 2007
Capstead Mortgages (NYSE – CMO) up 26.6% since June 2007 (does not incl. dividend)
Annaly Capital Management (NYSE – NLY) – up 22.4 % since June 2007 (dividend not included)

Regardless of the false reports you get and the misstatement heard around the market place, investors will find excellent opportunities to grow their money and be better prepared for the terminus to that life long plan they hold so dearly.

You’re welcome!

Bill Hudley

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Lucky For You, Michelle Obama, There Is Still Time!

I am a Chicago born African American male in my early 70s. I have had the great fortune of seeing most of America, either because of business interests or through personal travel. In both cases, I have enjoyed the mutual benefit of knowing a broad spectrum of people from various strata in this country.

Your academic achievements obviously outshine mine by several light candles, and I am sure you worked extra hard to earn your credentials. You're also quite charming. But those are all the virtues I can see, judging from your public appearances. There’s always the chance that a personal acquaintance would alter my current impressions of you.

In a word, I feel badly that your outlook and opinions of life in these United States appear to be bleak and uninspiring. If I were asked, I would say your expressions should be restricted to helping individuals of all racial backgrounds see the promising opportunities available to every citizen of this nation. Lack of justice in this country should never be an excuse for denying ourselves the advancement that comes from optimism and hard work.

I don’t wish to brag about my modest achievements. Yet, I am compelled to mention that, in 1970 I began my career as entrepreneur and business owner in the heart of Manhattan. My clients were representatives from Fortune 500 companies from various parts of this country.

During the last twenty years, I changed careers and became a stockbroker and investment advisor to dozens of wealthy individuals throughout the United States. The rest of this story can be found in my forth coming novel, “Stock Power”.

To call this country ‘mean’ is a conspicuous misnomer. I believe your attitude implies that you have not been able to accurately interpret the conditions for breaking the ranks and competing for a prize that is only available to people who are willing to make sacrifices. I further think it is naïve to think America is not a nation of free-thinking, progressive minds that tend to see the glass as half-full, instead of half-empty.

We blacks have suffered from racial bias for centuries and will continue to be hindered by the color of our skin. Yet, I worry that you, along with thousands of African Americans, have a viewpoint that is more detrimental than any external social stigma. Presenting this country’s faults to the public in terms of fear and contempt is a dangerous, counter-intuitive and wasteful exercise that I sincerely hope you will recognize as one that needs to be abandoned.

Your mission, should you decide to accept it, is to compliment Mr. Obama’s campaign and not detract from it by voicing inappropriate statements that don’t make sense. You are at an enviable age that allows you time to step back, or go to a higher plane, where you can refresh your perceptions enough to see the horizon of a society that has encompassed a history of growth as well as degradation.

I believe you have time and the responsibility to add value to our country by being the visionary you can be without the unwarranted prejudice.

May God bless you and the Senator.

Bill Hudley

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Can You Double Your Money In The Next 6 Years?

It's definitely possible. Performance is key (on the part of an accredited investment professional, that is).

A woman asked me if it was possible for her to retire before she's 70. I asked her what her financial goal was. She told me she would feel comfortable with an income of $45,000 per year but that she wasn't sure about how long it would take her to reach that goal.

After a preliminary analysis of her current finances, I calculated that she would need twice the money she has now in order to retire. I told her about a simple, proven strategy that would help her grow her money in time for the 70th birthday, which happens to be six years from March 12, 2008.

The magic number for the average average return on the new strategy is 12% per year! Obviously, this is not your typical portfolio performance these days; but if the return is achieved, my client can change her employment status in 2014.

Hint: No Mutual Funds!

There isn't much chance of an employee getting satisfaction from mutual funds [found in 401(k) plans] over the next three to five years. The broad markets are too soft. In addition, fees charged on managed money absorb too much of the return on investment. If you ask the right professional - not your hair stylist or mail carrier - you can get good information on how to earn an average annual return of 10-12% on your money, starting today.

No kidding!

Bill Hudley

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Stock Power (The Novel) Soon To Be Released!

For many months, I have been planning, plotting, pushing and predicting the advent of my first novel, Stock Power. After reviewing its latest proof, I can safely say the book will be published by May 30. The event will herald the beginning of a new future for this author as well as dozens of my readers.

Stock Power was inspired by a series of difficulties that I encountered, beginning with my dismissal from the investment industry. It took me nearly four years to complete this work, not having the resources to hire administrative assistance before arriving at the editing stages. In a few weeks, I sincerely believe readers of my book will cheer and jeer Bill Haydon as he struggles to with his personal conflicts in the world of finance.

Please stay tuned to this blog for interesting short stories and opinions related to current events, particularly the stock market, which is my forte. For an advance introduction to my book, please visit: http://www.stockpower-thenovel.com

Stock Power will definitely provide entertainment and possibly enlightenment on what it means to be rich.

Thank you.

Bill Hudley

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Senator Obama, please don't say 'because'

Lately, I have become addicted to the Democratic side of the Presidential 2008 campaigns. To say that I am impressed with Senator Barack Obama’s rise in popularity would be an understatement. The reason I won’t spend time searching for a more appropriate word is THAT I have a more pressing mission here.

In view of Mr. Obama’s poise and oratory skills I feel it is my faithful duty to point out the reason he should avoid the common abuse committed by too many average Americans. While it seems almost natural to use the words, ‘reason’ and ‘because’, in the same sentence, the misusage can deteriorate the most powerful message, especially when heard by an erudite audience.

In short, I wish the senator would listen to good advice with regard to this minor grammatical flaw. You are a speaker, Mr. Obama, endowed with exemplary charisma, and since you are so well spoken and enjoy the power of words, please, PLEASE try to stick with the proper placement of the two words, ‘reason’ and ‘because’. It is redundant to use them both in a single phrase.

Senator, I’m with you all the way to November and wish you God’s speed as the next President of the United States!

Bill Hudley

Monday, January 28, 2008

Performance Is Everything

400-Yard Dash in 53.3 seconds!

I debated whether or not I should divulge a little known fact at this stage in my life, but yes, I ran the quarter mile dash in 53.3 seconds in high school. Fifty years later
, there are thousands of humans running the same distance in less than 44 seconds; so, who cares about my athletic history?

The point is that my ability to run holes in the wind at one point in my past is in NO WAY a guarantee of future performance. It takes me nearly the same length of time to get down the stairs to my garage as it did to run 1320 feet in my youth. You may wonder, “why is that?” Maybe not.

Let’s talk about all the impressive ads we see on our TV screens spouting impressive returns from mutual funds for the last five, ten and twenty years. The longer span on performance history is generally a more conventional attempt to reassure us of future financial security. Immediately, the mind projects out to the next long haul and accepts the potential gain as a fact of life. Meanwhile, I could not find any recently advertised performance figures on mutual funds for the two or three years preceding 2004 . If they existed, you needed a hound dog to find them. Marketing strategies use numbers to the promoter’s advantage.

But, if you ask the thousands of people who put their money into the hottest index funds in January of 2001 how they feel about past performance [the Standard & Poors 500 index tanked nearly 30% for a continuous period of 24 months.], many of them will tell you they wish they had been giveen more information. Two and a half years is a long time, considering the time value of money.

The start for year 2008, market-wise, is shaky. The reason for the volatility is most unsettling, which is why I will reiterate my previous warnings about so-called conventional wisdom. While I was channel surfing this past week-end, I caught a prominent female financial guru in the middle of one of the most over-used and inappropriate advisory statements of our times. She used the term - long haul - a little too often while implying that the market will go back up. That kind of advice is very bad news, especially for workers who wish to retire inside the next three to five years.

To be brief, we have a dilemma in the credit markets that is bulging. There has never been a larger glut in the sub-prime lending sector than what we have today. The billions of dollars in bad loans around the world weigh heavily on several major economies, especially ours. Refinancing of low-quality mortgages began more than a decade ago and has escalated at a run-away pace to the extent that equity markets are reacting to the situation. If credit quality does not improve, what kind of performance should we expect from the stock market?

Here's something to ponder: define long haul.

If you want an investment strategy that will help to secure your retirement in the next three to five years, it is time to get more involved with your finances. Start by monitoring your investments more frequently to check their performance. If you have been lulled into believing what goes down must go up, snap out of it! Look for sensible advice. It's not the hardest job you ever had.

Hawk