More than a decade has passed since I last touted these two financial giants as the safest investment vehicles second only to U.S. Treasuries. For those who might still be a little fuzzy as to who Freddie and Fannie are, I am referring to Freddie Mac (FHMAC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA), the mortgage industry's largest guarantors of home loans.
Back in my "hay day", between 1995 and 2000, I helped investors understand that getting 1 to 2 points over 10-year T-Bills was a sweet deal. Beside being more lucrative, mortgage securites were often much more liquid in a strong market. Those were the days---when rates were at or above 8.0% on paper "equivalent" to 10-year bonds.
The more things change, the more things change.
The recent ripple through the credit markets has caught up with Freddie and Fannie, providing confirmation to a critical underlying dilemma in our economy. Both of these giants need more money to build reserves after suffering from some bad mortgages in recent years. Refinancing has caught up with investors and institutions seeking to extend the defunct bullish trend in real estate. Now the same financial monoliths that were, at one time, my absolute favorite sources for fixed income are under the gun with the startling potential of losing their status as safer investments, at least from an equity standpoint.
Both of these mortgage buyers need to raise a few billion dollars. You might already know that Fannie Mae recently drummed up a pittance of $500 million in preferred stock; but the stock does not have the value it would normally have because the shares are "non-cumulative". Although an annual percentage rate of 7.25% can be seen as attractive in this environment, the dividend is not guaranteed. One missed dividend payout - there goes your annual rate!
It will be interesting to see what the magicians of Wall Street come up with in the way of alternative financing. I suspect a slick packaged derivative of some kind, to buy time, might be in the offing. How would you like a high-yield, short-term, zero coupon EFT? Don't laugh!
Hawk
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Monday, August 6, 2007
Retirement Bully
Are we seeing more reports about American workers who cannot afford to retire, or is it my imagination?
Just the other day, I saw a news report indicating that nearly 40 percent of baby boomers will have to work for the rest of their lives. My first reaction to that information was: "so what else is new?" When I decided to backtrack with my thinking, I immediately began to question such a broad prediction.
One of the reasons I think the media gets it wrong is that sifting through and analyzing data is not required to publish a sensational story. In other words, I don’t take mass media seriously when I want to know what’s happening financial markets. That’s not where you get information for future planning. No sir (ma'am).
Just from studying the statement above for a minute, one starts to wonder, why?
My best guess (a mighty good one, too) is that there is an abundance of surveys taken from suspects who are given the universal treatment of measuring current income, savings, investments and real assets in what might be loosely called 'realistic' or standard investment models. This is where the projections fall short of being functional and investors start to frown.
When I first became an investment broker, I took the position that mutual funds are to financial planning as aspirin is to bodybuilding. Sure, you can try each one, but you’d better have a deeper, well-designed personalized program if you want to reach your objective. I was right in 1988 about my views on financial planning, and I am assured of being more correct today.
In up and down markets, I have seen dozens of individuals, with three, five and ten year goals, meet their marks on or close to schedule. The key was in the right counseling that helped them make critical decisions about their money. Mutual funds were not at the center of their success. As time permits, I will continue this series on the dilemma and the solution for most workers who would like to retire in fifteen or twenty years.
It's time some of us broke away from public inertia. We'll be back with some really good news!
Hudster
Just the other day, I saw a news report indicating that nearly 40 percent of baby boomers will have to work for the rest of their lives. My first reaction to that information was: "so what else is new?" When I decided to backtrack with my thinking, I immediately began to question such a broad prediction.
One of the reasons I think the media gets it wrong is that sifting through and analyzing data is not required to publish a sensational story. In other words, I don’t take mass media seriously when I want to know what’s happening financial markets. That’s not where you get information for future planning. No sir (ma'am).
Just from studying the statement above for a minute, one starts to wonder, why?
My best guess (a mighty good one, too) is that there is an abundance of surveys taken from suspects who are given the universal treatment of measuring current income, savings, investments and real assets in what might be loosely called 'realistic' or standard investment models. This is where the projections fall short of being functional and investors start to frown.
When I first became an investment broker, I took the position that mutual funds are to financial planning as aspirin is to bodybuilding. Sure, you can try each one, but you’d better have a deeper, well-designed personalized program if you want to reach your objective. I was right in 1988 about my views on financial planning, and I am assured of being more correct today.
In up and down markets, I have seen dozens of individuals, with three, five and ten year goals, meet their marks on or close to schedule. The key was in the right counseling that helped them make critical decisions about their money. Mutual funds were not at the center of their success. As time permits, I will continue this series on the dilemma and the solution for most workers who would like to retire in fifteen or twenty years.
It's time some of us broke away from public inertia. We'll be back with some really good news!
Hudster
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Stock Power Soon To Be Released!
We have had our share of delays in the past six months; but, Stock Power (The Novel) is on its way to the presses!
The story within a story is that this new epic novel has finally reached the point of no return - a date with Trafford Publishing of British Columbia, Canada. Thanks to several individuals who have shown their faith, moral and financial support, my dream will come true at the book stores in about six weeks from now. It won't be a minute too soon.
We are hoping for a decent return on our labors within the next six months. During the next six weeks, there will be plenty of publicity about the story, its author and locations where the book-signings are likely to take place.
To all of my supporters, many thanks for your interest and patience with this long awaited book. I am hopeful that your patience will be compensated by an enjoyable adventure with Bill Haydon.
The story within a story is that this new epic novel has finally reached the point of no return - a date with Trafford Publishing of British Columbia, Canada. Thanks to several individuals who have shown their faith, moral and financial support, my dream will come true at the book stores in about six weeks from now. It won't be a minute too soon.
We are hoping for a decent return on our labors within the next six months. During the next six weeks, there will be plenty of publicity about the story, its author and locations where the book-signings are likely to take place.
To all of my supporters, many thanks for your interest and patience with this long awaited book. I am hopeful that your patience will be compensated by an enjoyable adventure with Bill Haydon.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Money Wins Over Grass!
I was invited to speak at an investment club inauguration. The group represented several distinct age groups. Toward the end of my presentation, I asked for a show of hands from people who would prefer to watch money grow rather grass.
Fortunately, the consensus was that, as a spectacle, grass was less attractive.
Although, I knew what to expect from my compliant audience, I was also not surprised to find out that less than half of the attendees knew whether or not CitiGroup would be considered a growth stock. Worse than that, only four people had reviewed their investment accounts within the past thirty days. Yet, these same investors were excited about the new investment club they had just organized. There were nearly fifty members present.
“Why do you want to start an investment club?” I asked.
The spokesperson reiterated what she told me during our first conversation. Most of the members did have an ambition to learn more about investing in stocks. Their premise was correct. The few that approached me at the end of the meeting confirmed that they were happy about the knowledge they received in forty minutes.
In my opinion, this story reflects the disposition of thousands of Americans who, either because of busy schedules or social distractions, domestic or otherwise, are not in touch with their investments. A quick “drive by” at any lay financial forum on the Internet confirms this view. If index funds were band-aids, Johnson & Johnson should shut down all of its non-band-aid operations and go vertical.
I use the plastic strip analogy to build an image of how thousands of people relate to index funds and diversification. You might want a better metaphor. Nonetheless, facts show that billions of dollars have been transferred away from other investment vehicles, in favor of market tracking funds. This behavior has created a dilemma for investors who plan to retire soon or rich or both.
Just like drivers who don't look in the rear view mirror, investors use diversifaction (same as index funds) as the wherewithall to their monetary goals, and it is a mistake.
I measured the 5-year performance of the popular Vanguard 500 Index Fund from January 2, 2001 to January 3, 2006. The total gain in the net asset value (NAV) of the fund was a paltry 8.84%! And that's for the enitre 260 weeks. (Of course, in retrospect it was a good time to buy the shares.) But, stop and think what numbers can do for a mutual fund sales brochure, depending on which numbers you choose. It is true, that [eliminating the months immediately prior] this portfolio has averaged a little over 6% per annum during the most recent five-year term. Dozens of intermediate bond funds funds have done better.
Of personal concern is whether or not the share price will get back to, or exceed its February high and for how long.
I rest my case.
Hudster
Fortunately, the consensus was that, as a spectacle, grass was less attractive.
Although, I knew what to expect from my compliant audience, I was also not surprised to find out that less than half of the attendees knew whether or not CitiGroup would be considered a growth stock. Worse than that, only four people had reviewed their investment accounts within the past thirty days. Yet, these same investors were excited about the new investment club they had just organized. There were nearly fifty members present.
“Why do you want to start an investment club?” I asked.
The spokesperson reiterated what she told me during our first conversation. Most of the members did have an ambition to learn more about investing in stocks. Their premise was correct. The few that approached me at the end of the meeting confirmed that they were happy about the knowledge they received in forty minutes.
In my opinion, this story reflects the disposition of thousands of Americans who, either because of busy schedules or social distractions, domestic or otherwise, are not in touch with their investments. A quick “drive by” at any lay financial forum on the Internet confirms this view. If index funds were band-aids, Johnson & Johnson should shut down all of its non-band-aid operations and go vertical.
I use the plastic strip analogy to build an image of how thousands of people relate to index funds and diversification. You might want a better metaphor. Nonetheless, facts show that billions of dollars have been transferred away from other investment vehicles, in favor of market tracking funds. This behavior has created a dilemma for investors who plan to retire soon or rich or both.
Just like drivers who don't look in the rear view mirror, investors use diversifaction (same as index funds) as the wherewithall to their monetary goals, and it is a mistake.
I measured the 5-year performance of the popular Vanguard 500 Index Fund from January 2, 2001 to January 3, 2006. The total gain in the net asset value (NAV) of the fund was a paltry 8.84%! And that's for the enitre 260 weeks. (Of course, in retrospect it was a good time to buy the shares.) But, stop and think what numbers can do for a mutual fund sales brochure, depending on which numbers you choose. It is true, that [eliminating the months immediately prior] this portfolio has averaged a little over 6% per annum during the most recent five-year term. Dozens of intermediate bond funds funds have done better.
Of personal concern is whether or not the share price will get back to, or exceed its February high and for how long.
I rest my case.
Hudster
Friday, March 30, 2007
The name of the game is money. Hel-l-o-o-o-o!
We got into a discussion the other day (over at the Helium website) about the differences between money market funds and CDs. While we're at it, the discussion contained the key phrase money market funds - not money markets, a wide-spread misnomer.
Meanwhile, money market funds are actually mutual funds that are managed, and they invest in commercial paper and other short-term cash equivalents, typlically called "obligations". The only change that takes place in a money fund [of importance to investors] is its dividend yield, generally expressed in annualized terms but calculated over periods of 7 and 10 days (mutual funds, including money funds, don't pay interest). The yield will fluctuate, but not the principal.
The share price has always been one dollar. The shorter the term of certificate, which is most often between 90 and 180 days, the safer it is. That characteristic alone helps to make the decision a lot simpler when the choice might be based on the annualized yield.
To go a step further, the most compelling reason to "invest" in a money market fund is to have liquidity - which is to say, write checks, make frequent withdrawals and invest in other vehicles - and getting a better dividend rate (not interest rate) than a short-term CD.
Certificates of Deposit pay more interest when the date to maturity is further away. Their main attraction to knowledgeable customers is that they are guaranteed by way of insurance. Money market funds can never be insured.
Obviously, there is a wide-spread misconception about the nature of money market funds for a large population of investors. (I thought this platform was too good an opportunity to pass up.)
Over the years, including our recent interaction with Helium, we have identified a class of people that believes money market funds invest in the stock market. This is a gross misconception. For the sake of making the connection, go no further than the name of the fund(s). M-o-n-e-y. Money. For further clarification, please take a quick glance at the SEC's definition of the security.
In addition, they are not considered viable investments for long periods of time. Sure, they're as safe as can be. So is a Hummer! Why don't we all go out and buy one! There are thousands of people who put half their savings into these investments. It's wrong, with a capital 'R'. It's like driving from L.A. to San Diego with your foot on the break pedal. Don't do it.!
Whew! That felt good.
Hudster
Meanwhile, money market funds are actually mutual funds that are managed, and they invest in commercial paper and other short-term cash equivalents, typlically called "obligations". The only change that takes place in a money fund [of importance to investors] is its dividend yield, generally expressed in annualized terms but calculated over periods of 7 and 10 days (mutual funds, including money funds, don't pay interest). The yield will fluctuate, but not the principal.
The share price has always been one dollar. The shorter the term of certificate, which is most often between 90 and 180 days, the safer it is. That characteristic alone helps to make the decision a lot simpler when the choice might be based on the annualized yield.
To go a step further, the most compelling reason to "invest" in a money market fund is to have liquidity - which is to say, write checks, make frequent withdrawals and invest in other vehicles - and getting a better dividend rate (not interest rate) than a short-term CD.
Certificates of Deposit pay more interest when the date to maturity is further away. Their main attraction to knowledgeable customers is that they are guaranteed by way of insurance. Money market funds can never be insured.
Obviously, there is a wide-spread misconception about the nature of money market funds for a large population of investors. (I thought this platform was too good an opportunity to pass up.)
Over the years, including our recent interaction with Helium, we have identified a class of people that believes money market funds invest in the stock market. This is a gross misconception. For the sake of making the connection, go no further than the name of the fund(s). M-o-n-e-y. Money. For further clarification, please take a quick glance at the SEC's definition of the security.
In addition, they are not considered viable investments for long periods of time. Sure, they're as safe as can be. So is a Hummer! Why don't we all go out and buy one! There are thousands of people who put half their savings into these investments. It's wrong, with a capital 'R'. It's like driving from L.A. to San Diego with your foot on the break pedal. Don't do it.!
Whew! That felt good.
Hudster
Friday, March 16, 2007
Rich Alan, Poor Alan
At about the time my story, "Stock Power (The Novel)" became more than a notion, I detected the unsettling coincidence of market movement with public discourses from Alan Greenspan. This would be in 1996, just prior to his "irrational exuberance" speech, to be more precise. It wasn't long before a sparse number of erudite financial journalists aired similar viewpoints.
Now, that Mr. Greenspan is no longer the country's official economic "catalyst", you would expect that he could slither around the world making his high priced speeches to private audiences without much notoriety. Not so.
Once again, enough of the right (or wrong) people have succeeded in pinning Wall Street's latest jitters on Greenspan's recently published views on the future of the credit markets. That's incredible! Let's see if I have this straight...
We're in the woods taking a group picture of the wife and kids with our super-duper digital camera we purchased a week before we went on vacation, and there's a grizzly lurking in the background (i.e., 0% financing, free blackberries and bad credit re-fies). Would we really need Alan Greenspan to come along and say, "Perhaps you might want to crop that grizzly over there out of the picture, Mr. Consumer." Better still, would it be Mr. Greenspan's fault that the bear presented an inconvenience, in the first place?
I always considered it essential, as stockbroker and investment counselor, to ask investors if they thought sequential refinancing was a sound economic strategy. Nearly everyone with whom I could hold a conversation on the subject concurred that the federal government had over extended its credit worthiness - and that was in the mid-nineties! What's bad for the gander is doubly bad for the geese, in this writer's opinion.
I have not studied economics formally; but there was never any doubt in my mind that falling interest rates were a definite indication that we were headed for a credit crunch. It's a good bet that conditions that existed in the late '70s will never be repeated; and I expect [federal funds] rates will move in ranges below 6% for many years to come. That kind of forecast portends a flat economy and a much riskier investment environment for people looking to retire rich.
Obviously, the markets will vibrate to the tune called the "Greenspan Effect" a while longer. I wouldn't be surprised if his motivation for making speeches is not entirely money driven. In which case, it might not be a bad idea to stay tuned to what he has to say.
Hudster
Now, that Mr. Greenspan is no longer the country's official economic "catalyst", you would expect that he could slither around the world making his high priced speeches to private audiences without much notoriety. Not so.
Once again, enough of the right (or wrong) people have succeeded in pinning Wall Street's latest jitters on Greenspan's recently published views on the future of the credit markets. That's incredible! Let's see if I have this straight...
We're in the woods taking a group picture of the wife and kids with our super-duper digital camera we purchased a week before we went on vacation, and there's a grizzly lurking in the background (i.e., 0% financing, free blackberries and bad credit re-fies). Would we really need Alan Greenspan to come along and say, "Perhaps you might want to crop that grizzly over there out of the picture, Mr. Consumer." Better still, would it be Mr. Greenspan's fault that the bear presented an inconvenience, in the first place?
I always considered it essential, as stockbroker and investment counselor, to ask investors if they thought sequential refinancing was a sound economic strategy. Nearly everyone with whom I could hold a conversation on the subject concurred that the federal government had over extended its credit worthiness - and that was in the mid-nineties! What's bad for the gander is doubly bad for the geese, in this writer's opinion.
I have not studied economics formally; but there was never any doubt in my mind that falling interest rates were a definite indication that we were headed for a credit crunch. It's a good bet that conditions that existed in the late '70s will never be repeated; and I expect [federal funds] rates will move in ranges below 6% for many years to come. That kind of forecast portends a flat economy and a much riskier investment environment for people looking to retire rich.
Obviously, the markets will vibrate to the tune called the "Greenspan Effect" a while longer. I wouldn't be surprised if his motivation for making speeches is not entirely money driven. In which case, it might not be a bad idea to stay tuned to what he has to say.
Hudster
Monday, March 12, 2007
Who Ate My Pancakes?
It might sound silly to start my next career preoccupied with what happened the day I met a realtor for breakfast a couple of years back when I was in the market for a new house. But, the fact is that breakfast is my favorite meal of the day. Not dinner. Not lunch. Breakfast.
Let me explain. When I start my day, I'm almost always in a good mood, particularly when I've had my six hours of sleep. Even when it's raining or snowing cats and dogs, I'm in a good frame if I don't have to leave the house.
Anyway, about my breakfast. It's usually my quality time - with a great pot of brewed coffee, freshly diced fruit, a toasted bran muffin and cream cheese with Mozart (18th century rapper) in the background, the Journal in the foreground (at home, of course). You don't top something like that.
So, I'm sitting in a favorite restaurant one day, waiting for this realtor to show up at 8 in the morning. Let's call her Shelley to protect the innocent (now, how do you know "Shelley" isn't her real name?) At 8:15 Shelley hasn't shown up. I was hungry; so, I put in my order for a stack of buckwheat cakes topped with strawberries and sour cream.
A couple of minutes later, in walks Shelley. She was huffing and puffing so hard, I imagined for a split-second that she had to push the car to the restaurant. She apologized and explained that traffic was snarled and it made her late. I had already assumed as much.
What happened in the ensuing moment was a near tragedy. Shelley placed her order for a soft boiled egg and toast. Then, she asked me if she could be excused to use the ladies room. I wished her well.
I was in the process of ravenously wolfing down my second delicious bite of my stack of cakes when she returned. Suddenly, I noticed an horrendous odor. It was a cross between pine needles and beet juice. There was no doubt in my mind about its origin.
"What on earth is that fragrance you're wearing?" I asked.
"Oh it's a new cologne I discovered when I was in Acapulco last December. Do you like it? It's called Baja Rain, by Juan Dupre!"
"You're kidding me!" I said. "Baja Rain? As in rain from the sky?"
"Exactly!" Shelley said, misconstruing my curiosity for a sign of approval. "It's sensational, don't you think? Juan Dupre is going to be hot, soon. I just know it."
I decided that what Shelley knew about colognes was extremely questionable. While Shelley started chomping on her 3-minute egg, my appetite for food had taken flight. We had a nine o'clock appointment to look at a house. All I had to do was survive the breakfast that I had anticipated to be an ideal spring board for Shelley and me. I could only hope, at 8:40 a.m., that the morning would not be a total waste.
It wasn't. I was very dexterous when I gave Shelley the reasons I needed to drive my own car to the location in question. She did not take offense and jumped into her car to lead the way to what she probably hoped would be a profitable experience. For my part, I drove the distance with all four windows open. The treatment was a relief. Later that morning, I sprayed the interior of my car with an Arm and Hammer air freshener made by Church and Dwight Co. (NYSE-CHD). (Great, great stock, by the way - worth owning before it hits 50. How do I know? I am senior analyst for a fast-growing advisory firm.)
Did I like the house? It was alright, for a forty-year-old frame and brick bungalow, but nothing special. I thought I might work the owners on price for a while.
Let see, so what's the point of this theme (better yet, what is the theme?).
Odors, including the best fragrances can kill an appetite for food. People (including men) ought to be careful about using fragrances, especially in the course of doing business. That about covers it. Don't forget what I said about CHD! (Is this a plug? What do you think?)
Disclosure: "Baja Rain" is a fictious title and does not exist as a product, to my knowledge.
Hudster
Let me explain. When I start my day, I'm almost always in a good mood, particularly when I've had my six hours of sleep. Even when it's raining or snowing cats and dogs, I'm in a good frame if I don't have to leave the house.
Anyway, about my breakfast. It's usually my quality time - with a great pot of brewed coffee, freshly diced fruit, a toasted bran muffin and cream cheese with Mozart (18th century rapper) in the background, the Journal in the foreground (at home, of course). You don't top something like that.
So, I'm sitting in a favorite restaurant one day, waiting for this realtor to show up at 8 in the morning. Let's call her Shelley to protect the innocent (now, how do you know "Shelley" isn't her real name?) At 8:15 Shelley hasn't shown up. I was hungry; so, I put in my order for a stack of buckwheat cakes topped with strawberries and sour cream.
A couple of minutes later, in walks Shelley. She was huffing and puffing so hard, I imagined for a split-second that she had to push the car to the restaurant. She apologized and explained that traffic was snarled and it made her late. I had already assumed as much.
What happened in the ensuing moment was a near tragedy. Shelley placed her order for a soft boiled egg and toast. Then, she asked me if she could be excused to use the ladies room. I wished her well.
I was in the process of ravenously wolfing down my second delicious bite of my stack of cakes when she returned. Suddenly, I noticed an horrendous odor. It was a cross between pine needles and beet juice. There was no doubt in my mind about its origin.
"What on earth is that fragrance you're wearing?" I asked.
"Oh it's a new cologne I discovered when I was in Acapulco last December. Do you like it? It's called Baja Rain, by Juan Dupre!"
"You're kidding me!" I said. "Baja Rain? As in rain from the sky?"
"Exactly!" Shelley said, misconstruing my curiosity for a sign of approval. "It's sensational, don't you think? Juan Dupre is going to be hot, soon. I just know it."
I decided that what Shelley knew about colognes was extremely questionable. While Shelley started chomping on her 3-minute egg, my appetite for food had taken flight. We had a nine o'clock appointment to look at a house. All I had to do was survive the breakfast that I had anticipated to be an ideal spring board for Shelley and me. I could only hope, at 8:40 a.m., that the morning would not be a total waste.
It wasn't. I was very dexterous when I gave Shelley the reasons I needed to drive my own car to the location in question. She did not take offense and jumped into her car to lead the way to what she probably hoped would be a profitable experience. For my part, I drove the distance with all four windows open. The treatment was a relief. Later that morning, I sprayed the interior of my car with an Arm and Hammer air freshener made by Church and Dwight Co. (NYSE-CHD). (Great, great stock, by the way - worth owning before it hits 50. How do I know? I am senior analyst for a fast-growing advisory firm.)
Did I like the house? It was alright, for a forty-year-old frame and brick bungalow, but nothing special. I thought I might work the owners on price for a while.
Let see, so what's the point of this theme (better yet, what is the theme?).
Odors, including the best fragrances can kill an appetite for food. People (including men) ought to be careful about using fragrances, especially in the course of doing business. That about covers it. Don't forget what I said about CHD! (Is this a plug? What do you think?)
Disclosure: "Baja Rain" is a fictious title and does not exist as a product, to my knowledge.
Hudster
Friday, March 2, 2007
What Happened To The Stock Market?
(I thought I would try my hand at media hype and join the fray. It didn’t do anything for me, however; but it was fun trying.)
Headlines across the country were screaming over the incremental drop in the Dow Jones Averages that has not ended since February 12, 2007. Where else can you see excitement over a 4% (533 pt.) loss of equity following behind a run-up of more than 18%?
We could help drive Malox shares higher and boost TV ratings, if we dared. For example: Is the market in a correction pattern or are we headed back to 11,000. Could it be 10,000 or, worse yet, 9,000 before we get our sea legs? No doubt some creative journalist has already thought of this ploy.
One key benefit that we might consider is that recent concerns about the financial markets have provided some relief from the arcane coverage of a much less dynamic political front.
I could not resist shaking my head when reading yet another refried correlation between the market and the contest on capitol hill. This puny but visible media source stated, right on the World Wide Web, that the market needed “...a decisive direction” in the presidential race. Wait just a cotton-picking minute! What will the market need after the election is over…for Al Gore to promise he will stay out of politics forever?
Are the news crews that cover energy prices on a sabbitcal, waiting for their cue to return to work in the next few weeks? Will either Clinton or Obama have an influence on the oil markets when spot crude soars past 70? (Do elephants fly?)
Just for fun, try to imagine any one of the presidential hopefuls sitting across from Wen Jiabao next year and saying to him, “Look Ace, this is how it’s going down.”
Let’s keep it real and keep our eye on mortgage rates and energy prices until the sleeping dragon decides it’s time to eat. We are not naive about the role the media plays in stoking consumer fires. This economy has critical faults that do not make good copy for the evening news. We need to know what those weaknesses are.
More on that subject a little later on.
Hudster
Headlines across the country were screaming over the incremental drop in the Dow Jones Averages that has not ended since February 12, 2007. Where else can you see excitement over a 4% (533 pt.) loss of equity following behind a run-up of more than 18%?
We could help drive Malox shares higher and boost TV ratings, if we dared. For example: Is the market in a correction pattern or are we headed back to 11,000. Could it be 10,000 or, worse yet, 9,000 before we get our sea legs? No doubt some creative journalist has already thought of this ploy.
One key benefit that we might consider is that recent concerns about the financial markets have provided some relief from the arcane coverage of a much less dynamic political front.
I could not resist shaking my head when reading yet another refried correlation between the market and the contest on capitol hill. This puny but visible media source stated, right on the World Wide Web, that the market needed “...a decisive direction” in the presidential race. Wait just a cotton-picking minute! What will the market need after the election is over…for Al Gore to promise he will stay out of politics forever?
Are the news crews that cover energy prices on a sabbitcal, waiting for their cue to return to work in the next few weeks? Will either Clinton or Obama have an influence on the oil markets when spot crude soars past 70? (Do elephants fly?)
Just for fun, try to imagine any one of the presidential hopefuls sitting across from Wen Jiabao next year and saying to him, “Look Ace, this is how it’s going down.”
Let’s keep it real and keep our eye on mortgage rates and energy prices until the sleeping dragon decides it’s time to eat. We are not naive about the role the media plays in stoking consumer fires. This economy has critical faults that do not make good copy for the evening news. We need to know what those weaknesses are.
More on that subject a little later on.
Hudster
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Don't Quit Your Night Job
Assuming you work days, there is a strong possibility that you might have a special connection to a second job that keeps you "in the running" financially speaking. The extra money earned does not always have to treated like it's your lifesaver. Some of that money should be going to a worthy cause, such as your retirement, or toward education (typical) or toward writing your way toward a new lifestyle, which is what you see demonstrated here.
I never worked so hard in my life as I did on the novel I just completed a few days ago. The only way I could have made it to the last page of the last chapter was to (you guessed it) quit my day job. Yes, I am a little poorer than I would have been if I remained enslaved to an occupation that does not need my blood; but, I am a lot richer in the sense that I am now a bona fide author...soon to be a published author! That's a powerful thing to say. Writing was my "night job" for more than three years, folks. I will be rich and famous some day because I never quit.
The business of writing for fun and profit appeals to me because it gives me the opportunity to imagine things are happening (that aren't really happening), and nobody calls the padded wagon! It's a pretty neat position to be in and I recommend it highly to anyone who has a story worth telling.
Hudster
I never worked so hard in my life as I did on the novel I just completed a few days ago. The only way I could have made it to the last page of the last chapter was to (you guessed it) quit my day job. Yes, I am a little poorer than I would have been if I remained enslaved to an occupation that does not need my blood; but, I am a lot richer in the sense that I am now a bona fide author...soon to be a published author! That's a powerful thing to say. Writing was my "night job" for more than three years, folks. I will be rich and famous some day because I never quit.
The business of writing for fun and profit appeals to me because it gives me the opportunity to imagine things are happening (that aren't really happening), and nobody calls the padded wagon! It's a pretty neat position to be in and I recommend it highly to anyone who has a story worth telling.
Hudster
Sunday, February 18, 2007
Finishing Touches
I think it would be a good idea if academic degrees were conferred, conditionally. One of the conditions being that we all write a short story about our lives when we reach a certain age, say, fifty. My finite wisdom has expanded noticeably since I became a serious writer, and I suspect the world would be a lot more interesting (and safer?) if every adult was required to pen their histories for posterity.
"Stock Power (The Novel)" became a life's work nearly two years ago when I envisioned the commercial value it might have when it finally gets published - sometime in March. Coincidental to the advent of the new year, I have been able to assess my outlook from an improved perspective. Since the day I wrote the first paragraph of my story, I have learned a lot about what drives drives me crazy, gets my goat, makes me tick.
Of course, a novel is a serious venture, especially if you want people to pay to read it. However, the process of putting something in writing after it swirls around in your mind is a fantastic thing! I'll take a minute and give you an example of what I mean.
I wrote about a woman I met toward the end of the story I'm writing. I described my feelings toward her along with the special moments we had together over the course of our eighteen month love affair. Trying to make it interesting for someone else to read was fun and challenging.
Last night, I read a passage from that section, for the first time in three months. Wow! I had overlooked the importance of the love affair. The greatest value of the relationship, for me, was in the fact that it could never last! In real life, I went overboard trying to make something work that had no chance of enduring a lengthy absense (the story's crisis). After I thought about if for a couple days, I was able to describe my motivation more honestly and with greater insight.
As a direct result from the effort that I have put into this project, my awareness of how I think and where my motivation comes from, has increased greatly.
Picture this: a notice comes to your mailbox in a large yellow envelope marked "URGENT". You open the envelope to discover that you are more than 30 days past due on a mandatory writing assignment. Subject: "What do you think you're doing with your life?" You're exempt if you write a novel.
Would that work for you?
BH
"Stock Power (The Novel)" became a life's work nearly two years ago when I envisioned the commercial value it might have when it finally gets published - sometime in March. Coincidental to the advent of the new year, I have been able to assess my outlook from an improved perspective. Since the day I wrote the first paragraph of my story, I have learned a lot about what drives drives me crazy, gets my goat, makes me tick.
Of course, a novel is a serious venture, especially if you want people to pay to read it. However, the process of putting something in writing after it swirls around in your mind is a fantastic thing! I'll take a minute and give you an example of what I mean.
I wrote about a woman I met toward the end of the story I'm writing. I described my feelings toward her along with the special moments we had together over the course of our eighteen month love affair. Trying to make it interesting for someone else to read was fun and challenging.
Last night, I read a passage from that section, for the first time in three months. Wow! I had overlooked the importance of the love affair. The greatest value of the relationship, for me, was in the fact that it could never last! In real life, I went overboard trying to make something work that had no chance of enduring a lengthy absense (the story's crisis). After I thought about if for a couple days, I was able to describe my motivation more honestly and with greater insight.
As a direct result from the effort that I have put into this project, my awareness of how I think and where my motivation comes from, has increased greatly.
Picture this: a notice comes to your mailbox in a large yellow envelope marked "URGENT". You open the envelope to discover that you are more than 30 days past due on a mandatory writing assignment. Subject: "What do you think you're doing with your life?" You're exempt if you write a novel.
Would that work for you?
BH
Thursday, February 8, 2007
Terra Firma
I believe it's one thing to make a costly mistake that most people wouldn't dream of making; but it's quite a different side of the coin to pick one's self up and begin a new journey. Leaving a sandpit of deprivation, demoralization and remorse to embark on a life devoid of callousness and nacisicm, is my most recent accomplishement; and I hope to build on it.
I have learned a lot about myself in the past two years during which, I made a commitment to finish an important project. The new discovery is that I need a challenge in order to preserve a sense of self worth. That is part and parcel of who I am, and I cannot change it.
Contributing to the community, my church and family are all well and good; while these deeds migjht be honorable, I view them as simplistic. My idea of personal growth is to solve new problems without cheating.
I want to help others make corrections, take new strides and rise over the adversities that can be construed as insurmountable.
Depression is an enemy that has sapped the energy of a great number of people who grapple with their talents and ambitions. I struggle with the realization that my goals are still distant, but I will persist. Past achievements give me the confidence to forge ahead to new heights. This time around, I hope to keep my spirituality in tact.
It's a challenge. I wouldn't have it any other way.
BH
I have learned a lot about myself in the past two years during which, I made a commitment to finish an important project. The new discovery is that I need a challenge in order to preserve a sense of self worth. That is part and parcel of who I am, and I cannot change it.
Contributing to the community, my church and family are all well and good; while these deeds migjht be honorable, I view them as simplistic. My idea of personal growth is to solve new problems without cheating.
I want to help others make corrections, take new strides and rise over the adversities that can be construed as insurmountable.
Depression is an enemy that has sapped the energy of a great number of people who grapple with their talents and ambitions. I struggle with the realization that my goals are still distant, but I will persist. Past achievements give me the confidence to forge ahead to new heights. This time around, I hope to keep my spirituality in tact.
It's a challenge. I wouldn't have it any other way.
BH
A Look Behind The Story
About thirty years ago, someone asked me if I would be interested in training to become a stockbroker. I told them, "No way! A stockbroker is a car salesman wearing an expensive suit," I quipped.
In 1999, a 12-year career on Wall Street came to an abrupt end. I had served hundreds of investors and enjoyed a fairly exemplary reputation for being a "cut above" in my field. A small number of clients thought I had wings. The time flew by quickly as I attempted to compete for larger accounts in an environment that rewarded tenacity.
My business plan worked a little too well. I wanted to reach a certain status in 10 years. It didn't really take that long. My market grew from being confined to the New York City area to a definable range between Rochester and Fort Lauderdale.
In the latter months of my tenure in the investment world, I fell into a trap that has been publicized too often in the news media. Competition for money and prestige took my mind into the evil cravasses of lust and self-aggrandisement. My vision was distorted by several distractions, including acceptance in a new, upscale community. My sense of morality gave way to an insatiable desire to acquire wealth. The fraud and deceit that I commited seemed miniscule, compared to the prize that I construed to be sufficient justification.
Eventually my tumultuous lifestyle came to an uncomfortable halt the day I was sent off to a state facility to ponder my misdeeds. That day marked the beginning of my recovery from a warped, myopic view of the value of money.
I began with a diary, at first, because I knew I wanted to write a book about my experience.
In 1999, a 12-year career on Wall Street came to an abrupt end. I had served hundreds of investors and enjoyed a fairly exemplary reputation for being a "cut above" in my field. A small number of clients thought I had wings. The time flew by quickly as I attempted to compete for larger accounts in an environment that rewarded tenacity.
My business plan worked a little too well. I wanted to reach a certain status in 10 years. It didn't really take that long. My market grew from being confined to the New York City area to a definable range between Rochester and Fort Lauderdale.
In the latter months of my tenure in the investment world, I fell into a trap that has been publicized too often in the news media. Competition for money and prestige took my mind into the evil cravasses of lust and self-aggrandisement. My vision was distorted by several distractions, including acceptance in a new, upscale community. My sense of morality gave way to an insatiable desire to acquire wealth. The fraud and deceit that I commited seemed miniscule, compared to the prize that I construed to be sufficient justification.
Eventually my tumultuous lifestyle came to an uncomfortable halt the day I was sent off to a state facility to ponder my misdeeds. That day marked the beginning of my recovery from a warped, myopic view of the value of money.
I began with a diary, at first, because I knew I wanted to write a book about my experience.
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